6
Nevershedatear
5yo Mare · 11-0 · OR 86
Uttoxeter · Ted Anderson Dixon Handicap Chase · 2m 4f
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Bangor-on-Dee | C J Todd | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Sedgefield | R T Dunne | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bangor-on-Dee | R T Dunne | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Sedgefield | Toby Wynne | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-16 | Carlisle | Craig Nichol | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-15 | Newcastle | Craig Nichol | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 26/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -10.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 15/01/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 16/02/2026 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 31/03/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |