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7

Chico Magnifica

4yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 89

Uttoxeter · QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 168y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/11

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful middle-distance winner for Karl Burke. Much improved when ½-length second on handicap hurdle bow at Southwell in May. Went with more fluency when 7½-length third in a solid C&D event (second won since) on return. In excellent hands and has leading claims to open his hurdle account.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Hamilton 02/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 1m3f15y Goo 1302/0855 @ Catterick 18/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 1m4f13y Goo 1374 @ Hamilton 22/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 1m4f15y Sft 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 79 par22/094OR 794 @ Huntingdon 01/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m7f171y GS 156 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Warwick 08/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 2m Goo 149 · HIGHER CLASS8/0344 @ Wetherby 27/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR - · 2m Gd 150 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Bangor-on-Dee 18/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 2m145y Gd 149 · HIGHER CLASS18/0445 @ Southwell 11/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 88 · 1m7f182y Gd 152 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 88 par5 @ Uttoxeter 04/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 90 · 1m7f168y Gd 159 · beat its mark04/10/2026 · OR 90 par4/105OR 90projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-04UttoxeterS Bowen53rd3rd0
2026-05-11SouthwellS Bowen52nd2nd0
2026-04-18Bangor-on-DeeLewis Stones49th8th+1
2026-03-27WetherbyS Bowen49th8th+1
2026-03-08WarwickG Sheehan48th7th+1
2026-03-01HuntingdonS Bowen46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/081/0318/044/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 81/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/08/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
18/08/20254th4/696%0%-0.96
22/09/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
01/03/20266th11/271%29%-0.42
08/03/20268th33/10%30%+0.30
27/03/20269th12/137%43%+0.06
18/04/20269th125/10%33%+0.33
11/05/20262nd6/168%92%+0.23
04/10/20263rd10/382%80%-0.02