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5

Northerly

4yo Gelding · 11-1

Uttoxeter · Bob Derry 50 Years At Uttoxeter NH Flat Race (Conditional/Amateurs) (GBB Race) · 1m 7f 168y

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

£18,000 Passing Glance gelding. Half-brother to fair hurdler/modest chaser Don Brocco, stays 4m. Looked in need of the experience/a greater test of stamina fitted with a hood 15¾ lengths third of 6 in Market Rasen bumper (17f) on debut in early-April, going in snatches.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength12%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Market Rasen 05/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 2m125y Goo 148 · HIGHER CLASS5/044
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-05Market RasenCharlie Hammond43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength46%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20263rd33/10%60%+0.60