1
Kiara Des Bordes
6yo Mare · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Mercator - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#9
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Vincennes | D Thomain | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-09-20 | Vincennes | A Barrier | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Pornichet | M Barre | 6 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-08-05 | Saint-Malo | Ch Henry | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-07 | Chateaubriant | E Raffin | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Enghien | E Raffin | 5 | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 8-14 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 18/12/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 93% | +0.25 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 58% | -0.07 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |
| 20/09/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 02/10/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 59% | +0.59 |