3
Java Des Caillons
7yo Mare · 0-0 · Draw 3
Vincennes · Prix Barbara - Attele · 1m 2f 96y
#7
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Laval | Ch Jariel | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Cabourg | Y Lebourgeois | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Vichy | Th Briand | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Enghien | D Thomain | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hyeres | Th Briand | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mauquenchy | D Thomain | 6 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength87%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 93% | +0.01 |
| 29/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 92% | +0.05 |
| 02/04/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 76% | -0.13 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 44% | -0.37 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 28/08/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 27% | -0.31 |
| 03/10/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |