17
Madiba Marben
4yo Colt · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Merak - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Pornichet | M Barre | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Pornichet | M Barre | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Saint-Malo | Ch Henry | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Saint Brieuc | Ch Henry | 7 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-08-07 | Enghien | A Abrivard | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-07-31 | Pornichet | N Bazire | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1775% of fieldRange 1-17 · tight 20/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -18.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 24/05/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |