16
Marquis Somolli
4yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Merak - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#13
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Cabourg | J P Fichaux | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Vichy | M Dudouit | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Enghien | M Dudouit | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Laval | M Dudouit | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-23 | Laval | F Nivard | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Graignes | M Dudouit | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1713% of fieldRange 7-17 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 18/11/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 20/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 09/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 27/06/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 25/08/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 25% | -0.30 |