9
Montrose Vergnier
4yo Gelding · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Merak - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▼5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +5.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Le Croise-Laroche | A Collette | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Chateaubriant | A Collette | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-05 | Vichy | L Guinoiseau | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-04-09 | Reims | L Guinoiseau | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-03-06 | Laval | L Guinoiseau | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 17100% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 65/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -13.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 09/04/2025 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 70% | +0.65 |
| 05/05/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 28/09/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |