3
Ma Liberte
4yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Mebsuta - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
43%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Vincennes | M Mottier | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-09-18 | Vincennes | M Mottier | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2026-09-04 | Lyon-Parilly | Th Briand | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Enghien | M Mottier | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Vincennes | M Mottier | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-10 | Vincennes | M Mottier | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1763% of fieldRange 12-17 · tight 73/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 6th | 11/10 | 94% | 62% | -0.33 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 13/12/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 92% | -0.04 |
| 02/10/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 42% | -0.27 |