10
Melodica Bella
4yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Mebsuta - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Feurs | A Wiels | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Laval | A Wiels | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Chatelaillon | A Wiels | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Les Sables | A Wiels | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Nantes | A Wiels | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-02 | Maure De Bretagne | A Wiels | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1788% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 02/02/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 19/08/2026 | 9th | 8/15 | 97% | 47% | -0.51 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |