11
Merida Du Granit
4yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Mebsuta - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#10
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼3
Strength67%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Vincennes | E Raffin | 1 | +3 | ||
| 2026-01-10 | Vincennes | E Raffin | 2 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-12-30 | Vincennes | E Raffin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Vincennes | E Raffin | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Vincennes | E Raffin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Vincennes | E Raffin | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1719% of fieldRange 13-17 · tight 79/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength5%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.09 |
| 26/06/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 27/07/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 73% | +0.31 |
| 06/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 31/10/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 79% | +0.15 |
| 07/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 01/12/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 30/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 10/01/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 90% | -0.04 |