Merry River
4yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Mebsuta - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#12
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Vincennes | B Rochard | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Enghien | F Lagadeuc | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Vincennes | B Rochard | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Vincennes | B Rochard | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Vincennes | A Abrivard | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Enghien | Y Lebourgeois | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 29/01/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 10/02/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 69% | -0.04 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 93% | +0.51 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 02/10/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |