12
Mia De Simm
4yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Mebsuta - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Vincennes | P ph Ploquin | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2026-09-11 | Vincennes | P ph Ploquin | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Enghien | E Raffin | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Cabourg | M Mottier | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Enghien | M Mottier | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Vincennes | M Mottier | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1794% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 73/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 24/01/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 42% | -0.06 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |