9
Moon Des Arris
4yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Mebsuta - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Vincennes | A Rebeche | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | Vincennes | A Rebeche | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Vincennes | A Rebeche | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Enghien | A Rebeche | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Cabourg | A Rebeche | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chartres | A Rebeche | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1756% of fieldRange 9-15 · tight 73/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 54% | +0.17 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 87% | +0.34 |
| 25/09/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 16/10/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 76% | +0.19 |