Moonlight Star
4yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Mebsuta - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#17
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Vincennes | E Raffin | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Vincennes | F Nivard | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Enghien | Alexandre Chevrier | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Vincennes | Alexandre Chevrier | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -16.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 15th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 02/10/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |