5
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4yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Mebsuta - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#16
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼3
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Caen | Etienne Dubois | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Vincennes | M Abrivard | 2 | +2 | ||
| 2026-01-25 | Vincennes | M Abrivard | 1 | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-16 | Vincennes | M Abrivard | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Laval | Etienne Dubois | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-20 | Les Sables | C Testard | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 176% of fieldRange 4-17 · tight 44/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2024 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 04/12/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 28/03/2025 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 02/05/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 56% | -0.29 |
| 20/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 85% | +0.11 |
| 06/06/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 16/11/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 25/01/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 18/10/2026 | 10th | 150/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |