13
Mouskie De Guez
4yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Mebsuta - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼3
Strength56%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +2.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Vincennes | N Bazire | 1 | 11th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-09-27 | Vincennes | N Bazire | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Vincennes | N Bazire | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-01-25 | Vincennes | N Bazire | 1 | +3 | ||
| 2026-01-11 | Vincennes | N Bazire | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-03 | Vincennes | N Bazire | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1781% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength87%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 79% | +0.42 |
| 31/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 82% | -0.13 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 27/09/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 23/10/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |