1
My Happy Story
4yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Mebsuta - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#11
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Vincennes | Etienne Dubois | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-10-07 | Enghien | D Bonne | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-09-23 | Argentan | Etienne Dubois | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-05 | Vincennes | Etienne Dubois | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Vincennes | D Bonne | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2026-04-07 | Vincennes | D Bonne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1725% of fieldRange 7-15 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength39%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2025 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 19/01/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 03/02/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 10/02/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/02/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 54% | +0.28 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 07/04/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 05/06/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 16/10/2026 | 11th | 200/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |