8
Madere
4yo Filly · 9-6
Vincennes · Prix Toucan - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
35%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Vincennes | A Lamy | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-13 | Vincennes | Lilian Bertin | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | Vincennes | Lilian Bertin | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-15 | Cabourg | Lilian Bertin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Laval | Lilian Bertin | ? | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-22 | Cabourg | Mme C Levesque | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 72/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 46% | -0.06 |
| 22/08/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 62% | +0.04 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 13/01/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 16/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |