4
Madison Matidy
4yo Filly · 9-8
Vincennes · Prix Toucan - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Laval | Guillaume Martin | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Pornichet | Guillaume Martin | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Vincennes | Guillaume Martin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-27 | Vincennes | Guillaume Martin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | Mauquenchy | Guillaume Martin | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-06 | Vincennes | Guillaume Martin | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 83/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 85% | +0.11 |
| 12/01/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 27/01/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 03/02/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/09/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 03/10/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |