6
Marbella Chafs
4yo Filly · 9-8
Vincennes · Prix Toucan - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Enghien | A Angot | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Vincennes | A Angot | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-08-26 | Vincennes | A Angot | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Le Mans | A Angot | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Vincennes | M Champenois | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-05-27 | Caen | A Angot | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +7.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2025 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 12/07/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 27/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 17/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 27/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 26/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 26/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |