Margate
4yo Filly · 9-8
Vincennes · Prix Toucan - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Caen | A Lamy | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-10-10 | Caen | A Lamy | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Vire | S Dieudonne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Vincennes | S Dieudonne | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Cabourg | A Lamy | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saint-Malo | A Lamy | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +11.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 15/04/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 91% | +0.33 |
| 22/08/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 31/08/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 10/10/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |