2
Miss De Baille
4yo Filly · 9-8
Vincennes · Prix Toucan - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Laval | M Mottier | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-27 | Caen | M Mottier | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-12 | Vincennes | M Mottier | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-30 | Vincennes | M Mottier | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-04-03 | Vincennes | M Mottier | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2026-03-17 | Meslay Du Maine | M Mottier | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength78%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.23 |
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 90% | -0.08 |
| 17/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |