11
Molly White
4yo Filly · 9-8
Vincennes · Prix Toucan - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#10
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼2
Strength10%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Caen | W Dersoir-habib | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | Caen | R Lamy | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-09-27 | Vincennes | W Dersoir-habib | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-09-19 | Cabourg | R Ch Larue | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Vincennes | Lilian Bertin | 1 | +4 | ||
| 2026-08-26 | Vincennes | Lilian Bertin | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 30/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 10/03/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 90% | +0.35 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 79% | +0.73 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 19/09/2026 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 10/10/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/10/2026 | 2nd | 80/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |