5
Mominette
4yo Filly · 9-8
Vincennes · Prix Toucan - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#8
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Caen | S Pasquier | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | Enghien | S Pasquier | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Cabourg | S Pasquier | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-31 | Cabourg | S Pasquier | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Laval | S Pasquier | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Caen | S Pasquier | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 3-11 · tight 47/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 05/03/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 28/04/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 27/05/2026 | 12th | 100/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 92% | +0.86 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 31/07/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 36% | -0.52 |
| 26/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 18/10/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |