12
Nachyma Berry
3yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Livadie - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#7
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Caen | Mme T Mathias-maisonnette | 3 | +1 | ||
| 2026-09-27 | Vincennes | N Bazire | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Vincennes | D Bonne | 2 | +2 | ||
| 2026-02-16 | Vincennes | R Congard | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-27 | Vincennes | R Congard | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Vincennes | R Congard | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 8-13 · tight 68/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 43% | +0.38 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 19/12/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 27/01/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 78% | +0.12 |
| 16/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 27/09/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |