3
Noghera Countess
3yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Livadie - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#12
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲7
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 12.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C11.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -7.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | Caen | R Lamy | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Enghien | E De Jesus | 18 | 1st | 18th | −14 |
| 2026-02-20 | Vincennes | M Abrivard | 18 | 6th | 23th | −14 |
| 2026-02-14 | Agen | A Collette | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-10 | Vincennes | M Abrivard | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vincennes | Lilian Bertin | 3 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 7-13 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 10/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 14/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 20/02/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 18/10/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |