9
Noumea Ligneries
3yo Filly · 0-0
Vincennes · Prix Livadie - Attele · 1m 5f 92y
#2
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Vincennes | E Raffin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Vincennes | E Raffin | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Divonne Les Bains | Julien Raffestin | 5 | −1 | ||
| 2026-05-03 | La Capelle | Julien Raffestin | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mauquenchy | Julien Raffestin | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-02 | Le Croise-Laroche | Julien Raffestin | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 10-13 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 03/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 22/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |