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Le Beau Madrik

5yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 136

Wetherby · bet365 'Chasing Excellence' Beginners' Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 85y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/11

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up sole outing in bumpers and promising novice hurdler last season, winning 3 of his 4 starts (shaped as if amiss when pulled up in Kelso Grade 2 on other). Came up well short on his handicap bow/reappearance in the Welsh Champion Hurdle but this looks an excellent opportunity on chase debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Plumpton 21/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 2m1f164y Goo 149 · HIGHER CLASS21/0422 @ Cheltenham 25/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m87y Goo 155 · HIGHER CLASS25/1022 @ Newcastle 29/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m190y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS29/1124 @ Newcastle 27/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m4f62y Sft 16627/0142 @ Haydock 15/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 125 · 2m5f50y Goo 164 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 125 par15/042OR 1252 @ Chepstow 09/10/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR 137 · 2m16y Goo 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/10/2026 · OR 137 par9/102OR 137projClass-projected finish: 1st of 2
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09ChepstowHarry Skelton29th8th+1
2026-04-15HaydockHarry Skelton21st0th+1
2026-02-28KelsoHarry Skelton1+2
2026-01-27NewcastleTristan Durrell41st2nd−1
2025-11-29NewcastleHarry Skelton21st0th+1
2025-10-25CheltenhamHarry Skelton22nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0425/1029/1127/0115/049/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 2100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 87/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength81%

Delivery trend -5.0% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 2. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20252nd9/276%83%+0.07
25/10/20252nd5/287%90%+0.03
29/11/20251st8/1397%100%+0.03
27/01/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
15/04/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
09/10/20269th10/382%50%-0.32