3
Arcimboldo
4yo Gelding · 11-2
Wetherby · Best Odds Guaranteed At bet365 Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 154y
#4
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Market Rasen | Charlie Maggs | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | Aiden Brookes | 6 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Market Rasen | Charlie Maggs | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | Aiden Brookes | 6 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-02-15 | Newcastle | Aiden Brookes | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-13 | Newcastle | Rhys Elliott | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 18/11/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 03/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 13/01/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 08/06/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 400/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |