IvyArcIvyArc
4

Nate Of Spades

4yo Gelding · 11-2

Wetherby · Best Odds Guaranteed At bet365 Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 154y

#2

Rank

Odds

1/1

Win Prob

38%

Place Prob

44%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Nathaniel gelding who made a winning bumper debut at Warwick (2m, good) in May, forging clear in the closing stages. Switches to hurdles after a break with Charlie Longsdon stable among the winners. Probably the one to beat.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 1.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Warwick 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 2m Gd 1509/055
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-09WarwickG Sheehan51st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 50/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20261st5/287%100%+0.13