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Service Minimum

6yo Mare · 12-2 · OR 132

Wetherby · bet365 Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 154y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

31%

Place Prob

40%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hold-up type who resumed progress when snugly making it 3 wins from 4 starts on return at Newton Abbot. Still in form/caught further back than ideal when 8¾-length third at Uttoxeter since. Remains on career-high mark, with stable's relatively inexperienced claimer taking over from Harry Skelton.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Cheltenham 24/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 113 · 2m3f200y GS 144 · below its mark24/10/2025 · OR 113 par24/103OR 1134 @ Huntingdon 22/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 111 · 2m4f145y Sft 164 · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 111 par4 @ Warwick 07/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 109 · 2m Hvy 158 · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 109 par7/024OR 1094 @ Market Rasen 17/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 107 · 2m4f139y Sft 156 · below its mark17/02/2026 · OR 107 par5 @ Bangor-on-Dee 31/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 105 · 2m3f123y Gd 168 · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 105 par31/035OR 1052 @ Warwick 23/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 116 · 2m5f5y Gd 157 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 116 par2 @ Uttoxeter 24/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 126 · 2m3f207y Gd 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/05/2026 · OR 126 par24/052OR 1263 @ Newton Abbot 18/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 126 · 2m5f122y Gd 168 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 126 par2 @ Uttoxeter 16/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 132 · 2m3f207y Gd 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/10/2026 · OR 132 par16/102OR 132projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-16UttoxeterHarry Skelton23rd2nd+1
2026-09-18Newton AbbotHarry Skelton31st1st0
2026-05-24UttoxeterHarry Skelton27th6th+1
2026-04-23WarwickHarry Skelton21st0th+1
2026-03-31Bangor-on-DeeHarry Skelton51st3rd−2
2026-02-17Market RasenTristan Durrell47th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1017/0224/0516/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4100% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength30%

Delivery trend -10.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/202511th20/10%47%+0.47
22/01/20267th18/15%57%+0.52
07/02/20264th16/116%57%+0.41
17/02/20267th18/15%45%+0.40
31/03/20261st8/1597%100%+0.03
23/04/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
24/05/20267th3/184%40%-0.44
18/09/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
16/10/20263rd6/492%60%-0.32