1
Charles Darnay
3yo Gelding · 11-0
Wetherby · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (Listed) (GBB Race) · 2m
#6
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲3
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Newmarket | Cieren Fallon | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-01 | Lingfield | Rossa Ryan | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-03-02 | Kempton | L Morris | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-02-07 | Southwell | P Cosgrave | 5 | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-01-17 | Lingfield | L Morris | 2 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 67/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 82% | -0.09 |
| 02/03/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |