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6

Timely Salute

3yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 107

Wetherby · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (Listed) (GBB Race) · 2m

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Steadily progressive type. Chased home Moment Of Light (closely matched with Vietnorm) on sole hurdle defeat from 3 starts. Capitalised on large 3-y-o allowance when driven out to win on handicap debut at Market Rasen (19f) latest. Step into listed company probably a bridge too far, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲4
Strength7%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -4.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 18/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 7f Std 13118/0952 @ Chelmsford City 06/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 1m Std 1284 @ Yarmouth 11/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m3y Gd 12311/0446 @ Lingfield 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 57 · 1m1y Std 127 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Bath 13/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 55 · 1m2f37y Fm 135 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 55 par13/056OR 556 @ Lingfield 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m3f133y Goo 132 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 52 par4 @ Newton Abbot 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 2m167y Goo 15619/0744 @ Newton Abbot 07/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 2m167y Gd 1615 @ Market Rasen 26/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 100 · 2m2f140y Gd 148 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 100 par26/095OR 100projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Market RasenFreddie Mitchell51st6th−4
2026-09-07Newton AbbotFreddie Mitchell42nd6th−3
2026-07-19Newton AbbotTom Broughton41st5th−3
2026-05-30LingfieldMarco Ghiani64th10th−5
2026-05-13BathTaylor Fisher69th15th−5
2026-04-28LingfieldL Morris65th11th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0928/0419/0726/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 5-8 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength4%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20255th33/10%60%+0.60
06/11/202511th80/10%23%+0.23
11/04/20268th40/10%30%+0.30
28/04/20265th10/147%20%-0.27
13/05/20269th9/153%0%-0.53
30/05/20264th8/158%67%+0.09
19/07/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
07/09/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02
26/09/20261st3/184%100%+0.16