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7

Vietnorm

3yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 115

Wetherby · Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (Listed) (GBB Race) · 2m

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

61%

Place Prob

39%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Decisively completed a cross-code hat-trick when successful on hurdling debut at Market Rasen in June. Mitigation for a couple of defeats prior to a much-improved win over Moment Of Light on return to Market Rasen last time. In the right hands to keep improving and has to be high on the shortlist.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲4
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 26/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 1m5y Std 13126/1155 @ Newcastle 02/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 7f14y Std 1296 @ Wolverhampton 30/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 53 · 1m142y Std 123 · beat its mark30/12/2025 · OR 53 par30/126OR 536 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 50 · 1m1f170y Gd 125 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Beverley 30/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 53 · 1m1f207y Goo 130 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 53 par30/056OR 534 @ Market Rasen 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 2m125y Gd 1546 @ Ripon 06/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 56 · 1m4f10y Goo 131 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 56 par6/076OR 564 @ Uttoxeter 26/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 1m7f168y Gd 1613 @ Market Rasen 26/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 108 · 2m125y Gd 162 · beat its mark26/09/2026 · OR 108 par26/093OR 108projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-26Market RasenOakley Brown31st4th−2
2026-08-31CartmelOakley Brown4−3
2026-07-26UttoxeterDanny McMenamin42nd6th−3
2026-07-06RiponBarry McHugh65th11th−5
2026-06-12Market RasenDanny McMenamin41st5th−3
2026-05-30BeverleyMikey Sheehy61st7th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/118/056/0726/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength61%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/11/20256th33/10%44%+0.44
02/12/20259th33/10%0%0.00
30/12/20256th50/10%29%+0.29
08/05/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
30/05/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
12/06/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
06/07/20265th8/1597%43%-0.54
26/07/20262nd8/1196%88%-0.09
26/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24