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5

Crebilly

9yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 132

Wetherby · Bet Boost At bet365 Crossley Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 85y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has found some useful form in recent months without scaling the heights of his 2024 second in the Cheltenham Plate. Made it 2 wins from 4 starts in small-field handicap at Worcester prior to finishing 2¾-length third off this mark at Ffos Las latest. Harry Cobden now looks elsewhere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Ayr 11/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 136 · 2m4f110y GS 167 · below its mark11/04/2025 · OR 136 par11/042OR 1362 @ Aintree 08/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 130 · 3m149y GS 150 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 130 par2 @ Chepstow 27/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 129 · 2m7f131y GS 155 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 129 par27/122OR 1293 @ Wincanton 23/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 123 · 2m3f179y Gd 161 · below its mark23/03/2026 · OR 123 par4 @ Market Rasen 28/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 120 · 2m4f139y Gd 168 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 120 par28/054OR 1202 @ Uttoxeter 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 124 · 2m7f70y Goo 159 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 124 par2 @ Stratford 20/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 129 · 2m3f98y GF 161 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 129 par20/082OR 1292 @ Worcester 10/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 129 · 2m4f Gd 168 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 129 par2 @ Ffos Las 14/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 132 · 2m3f83y Sft 145 · below its mark14/10/2026 · OR 132 par14/102OR 132projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-14Ffos LasHarry Cobden23rd4th−1
2026-09-10WorcesterHarry Cobden21st2nd−1
2026-08-20StratfordHarry Cobden22nd3rd−1
2026-06-28UttoxeterHarry Cobden24th5th−1
2026-05-28Market RasenHarry Cobden41st5th−3
2026-03-23WincantonJonjo O'Neill Jr.35th7th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0423/0320/0814/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength80%

Delivery trend +3.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/04/20255th11/271%60%-0.11
08/11/20256th12/137%17%-0.20
27/12/20258th3/184%22%-0.62
23/03/20265th12/137%43%+0.06
28/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
28/06/20264th18/581%67%-0.14
20/08/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
10/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
14/10/20263rd11/486%71%-0.14