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12

Fairly Fulling

8yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 89

Wetherby · Racing Value At bet365 Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f 56y

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Belatedly off the mark in a 15-runner handicap at Newcastle (2½m) in March and added to his tally when seeing off 9 rivals over 2½m at Perth in July. Raised 6 lb and failed to get home back up in trip there 6 weeks later, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Sedgefield 30/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 79 · 2m178y Gd 144 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 79 par30/095OR 795 @ Newcastle 30/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 79 · 2m190y Goo 148 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 79 par5 @ Sedgefield 13/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 78 · 2m3f188y Sft 149 · beat its mark13/11/2025 · OR 78 par13/115OR 785 @ Sedgefield 05/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 79 · 2m5f34y Sft 146 · below its mark05/12/2025 · OR 79 par5 @ Sedgefield 26/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 78 · 2m3f188y GS 148 · beat its mark26/12/2025 · OR 78 par26/125OR 785 @ Newcastle 14/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 77 · 2m4f62y Goo 145 · beat its mark14/03/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Southwell 09/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 84 · 3m60y Goo 155 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 84 par9/065OR 845 @ Perth 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 84 · 2m4f35y Gd 153 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 84 par5 @ Perth 23/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 90 · 2m7f207y Goo 162 · below its mark23/09/2026 · OR 90 par23/095OR 90projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23PerthNathan Moscrop58th8th0
2026-07-02PerthNathan Moscrop51st1st0
2026-06-09SouthwellNathan Moscrop54th4th0
2026-05-19HexhamNathan Moscrop50
2026-03-14NewcastleP W Wadge51st1st0
2025-12-26SedgefieldNathan Moscrop54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/095/129/0623/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 39/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength43%

Delivery trend +7.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20254th5/287%70%-0.17
30/10/20257th11/486%40%-0.46
13/11/20252nd13/266%89%+0.23
05/12/20254th9/488%40%-0.48
26/12/20254th4/179%57%-0.22
14/03/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
09/06/20264th14/126%73%+0.46
02/07/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
23/09/20268th11/142%36%-0.06