4

Romany Brown

6yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 102

Wetherby · Racing Value At bet365 Handicap Hurdle · 2m 5f 56y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark in a Killarney maiden hurdle (17f) on final outing for previous connections. Hasn't reached anywhere near those heights since joining current yard though, struggling to get competitive in a steadily-run handicap at Worcester on most recent outing. Tongue strap on for first time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength46%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Naas 16/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 2m51y Yie 16816/12C?C8 @ Thurles 19/01/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 2m3f172y Gd 168C0 @ Kilbeggan 24/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 1m7f110y Goo 16824/04C?C8 @ Killarney 11/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 1584 @ Worcester 07/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 122 · 2m GS 163 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/06/2025 · OR 122 par7/064OR 1222 @ Worcester 26/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 120 · 2m4f Gd 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 120 par4 @ Uttoxeter 15/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 115 · 1m7f168y Gd 165 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 115 par15/074OR 1154 @ Uttoxeter 26/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 110 · 1m7f168y Gd 160 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 110 par4 @ Worcester 23/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 105 · 2m4f Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 105 par23/084OR 105projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23WorcesterC Gethings45th4th+1
2026-07-26UttoxeterC Gethings44th3rd+1
2026-07-15UttoxeterC Gethings44th3rd+1
2025-11-03HerefordHarry Bannister4+1
2025-09-26WorcesterHarry Bannister29th5th+3
2025-06-07WorcesterJ M Quinlan43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1211/0515/0723/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 82/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/12/20243rd7/282%82%+0.00
19/01/20253rd13/891%67%-0.25
24/04/20254th11/486%77%-0.09
11/05/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
07/06/20253rd1/195%75%-0.20
26/09/20259th66/10%43%+0.43
15/07/20264th25/10%40%+0.40
26/07/20264th18/15%40%+0.35
23/08/20265th25/10%43%+0.43