4
Big Lew
5yo Horse · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 70
Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
84%
Place Prob
55%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Woodbine | Christoff Douglas | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Woodbine | Desean Bynoe | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Woodbine | Desean Bynoe | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Woodbine | Desean Bynoe | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | Austin Adams | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength71%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 02/10/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |