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5

Smarter Still

5yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 5 · OR 61

Woodbine · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength5%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Woodbine 21/07/2024 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 5f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS21/07C7C9 @ Woodbine 07/12/2024 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 58 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark07/12/2024 · OR 58 parC9 @ Woodbine 10/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 54 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 54 par10/07C9OR 54C9 @ Woodbine 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 51 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 51 parC9 @ Woodbine 16/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 54 · 6f110y Fas 124 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 54 par16/08C9OR 54C9 @ Fort Erie 24/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 54 · 5f Slo 122 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 54 parC9 @ Fort Erie 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 58 · 5f Fas 122 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 58 par7/09C9OR 58C8 @ Fort Erie 29/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 55 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark29/09/2026 · OR 55 parC8 @ Fort Erie 06/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 61 · 5f110y Fas 124 · below its mark06/10/2026 · OR 61 par6/10C8OR 61projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-06Fort ErieJason Hoyte?3rd3rd0
2026-09-29Fort ErieJason Hoyte?3rd3rd0
2026-09-07Fort ErieJason Hoyte?1st2nd−1
2026-08-24Fort ErieJason Hoyte?2nd3rd−1
2026-08-16WoodbineJason Hoyte?7th8th−1
2026-07-31WoodbineJason Hoyte?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0731/077/096/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength72%

Delivery trend +8.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/07/20248th14/126%0%-0.26
07/12/20246th12/137%17%-0.20
10/07/20267th16/116%0%-0.16
31/07/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56
16/08/20267th12/137%0%-0.37
24/08/20262nd4/179%75%-0.04
07/09/20261st2/999%100%+0.01
29/09/20263rd14/126%60%+0.34
06/10/20263rd20/10%60%+0.60