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5

Lady On The Nile

4yo Filly · 8-11 · Draw 5 · OR 76

Woodbine · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

62%

Place Prob

38%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Woodbine 15/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 79 · 7f 121 · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 79 par15/11C9OR 79C9 @ Woodbine 12/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 60 · 7f Fas 119 · below its mark12/12/2025 · OR 60 parC9 @ Woodbine 19/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 47 · 4f110y 123 · beat its mark19/04/2026 · OR 47 par19/04C9OR 47C9 @ Woodbine 15/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 46 · 5f 124 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 46 parC7 @ Woodbine 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 47 · 1m Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 47 par5/06C7OR 47C8 @ Woodbine 23/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 55 · 7f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 55 parC8 @ Woodbine 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 56 · 7f110y Fm 123 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 56 par6/08C8OR 56C6 @ Woodbine 07/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 73 · 7f110y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 73 parC6 @ Woodbine 04/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 72 · 1m110y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/10/2026 · OR 72 par4/10C6OR 72projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-04WoodbinePietro Moran?7th5th+2
2026-09-07WoodbineDavid Moran?3rd1st+2
2026-08-06WoodbinePietro Moran?1st1st0
2026-07-23WoodbineFraser Aebly?1st1st0
2026-06-05WoodbineFraser Aebly?1st0th+1
2026-05-15WoodbineFraser Aebly?8th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1115/056/084/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/11/202511th6/492%0%-0.92
12/12/20259th5/287%11%-0.76
19/04/20262nd13/266%75%+0.09
15/05/20268th9/488%0%-0.88
05/06/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
23/07/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
06/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
07/09/20263rd9/153%50%-0.03
04/10/20267th12/137%25%-0.12