4
Elissa's Macho
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 81
Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 60/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -10.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 90% | -0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 11/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 03/10/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |