1
Lita Marie
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 68
Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | Christoff Douglas | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | Pietro Moran | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | Kemarie Blackett | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 51/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 26/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 19/09/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 08/10/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |