2
Pat's Holiday
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 64
Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-25 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Woodbine | Xarel Forde | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Woodbine | Christoff Douglas | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | Harriston Lewis | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2025-11-28 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength37%
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 23/10/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 64% | -0.23 |
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 69% | +0.01 |
| 28/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 12/12/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 25/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 08/10/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |