5

Really Big Show

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 74

Woodbine · Race 3 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 1m 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Woodbine 15/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 6f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS15/11C6C6 @ Woodbine 14/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 70 · 7f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 70 parC6 @ Woodbine 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 68 · 1m110y Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 68 par23/05C6OR 68C7 @ Woodbine 11/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 68 · 7f110y Fm 124 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 68 parC7 @ Woodbine 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 69 · 1m 124 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 69 par4/07C7OR 69C7 @ Woodbine 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 70 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 70 parC7 @ Woodbine 27/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 71 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 71 par27/08C7OR 71C7 @ Woodbine 19/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 72 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark19/09/2026 · OR 72 parC6 @ Woodbine 04/10/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 69 · 1m3f Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/10/2026 · OR 69 par4/10C6OR 69projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-04WoodbineJalon Samuel?5th4th+1
2026-09-19WoodbineJalon Samuel?3rd3rd0
2026-08-27WoodbineJalon Samuel?3rd3rd0
2026-07-23WoodbineJalon Samuel?4th4th0
2026-07-04WoodbineJalon Samuel?5th5th0
2026-06-11WoodbineJalon Samuel?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1111/0627/084/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength66%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/11/20255th16/116%33%+0.18
14/12/20255th25/10%20%+0.20
23/05/20266th40/10%17%+0.17
11/06/20266th16/116%29%+0.13
04/07/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
23/07/20264th10/147%57%+0.10
27/08/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24
19/09/20263rd5/174%67%-0.07
04/10/20265th25/10%33%+0.33