Don't Say A Word

3yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 2 · OR 61

Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

10%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ RUNS TO MARK

Move▬

Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-10	Woodbine	Christoff Douglas	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-09-19	Woodbine	Christoff Douglas	?	7th	5th	+2	5.4
2026-08-27	Woodbine	Christoff Douglas	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-06	Woodbine	Christoff Douglas	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-23	Woodbine	Xarel Forde	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-07-04	Woodbine	Xarel Forde	?	8th	6th	+2	4.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 53/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength82%

Delivery trend +7.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/07/2026	8th	8/1	58%	13%	-0.45
23/07/2026	8th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
06/08/2026	3rd	33/1	0%	71%	+0.71
27/08/2026	5th	9/1	53%	50%	-0.03
19/09/2026	7th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
10/10/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	60%	+0.23