Gelato
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 80
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-05 | Woodbine | Fraser Aebly | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-14 | Woodbine | Keveh Nicholls | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Turfway Park | Luan Machado | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-11-30 | Woodbine | Ryan Munger | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-11-14 | Woodbine | Ryan Munger | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 28/09/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 43% | -0.45 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 14/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 30/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 14/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 09/10/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |