No Cape
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 7 · OR 71
Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Woodbine | Emma Jayne Wilson | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | David Moran | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | David Moran | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | David Moran | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-11-16 | Woodbine | David Moran | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Woodbine | David Moran | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 05/10/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 16/11/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 18/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 70% | -0.17 |
| 09/10/2026 | 10th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |