Pelee Island

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 9 · OR 52

Woodbine · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARK

Move▼1

Strength71%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Jockey	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-10-12	Fort Erie	Juan Crawford	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-09-28	Fort Erie	Da Sean Gaskin	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-09-14	Fort Erie	Da Sean Gaskin	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-24	Fort Erie	Desean Bynoe	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-08-11	Fort Erie	Da Sean Gaskin	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2026-07-27	Fort Erie	Desean Bynoe	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 5-8 · tight 72/100

▬ RUNS TO FORM

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
07/09/2025	9th	40/1	0%	0%	0.00
16/11/2025	8th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
07/07/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	67%	+0.40
27/07/2026	2nd	10/1	47%	80%	+0.33
11/08/2026	8th	11/2	71%	0%	-0.71
24/08/2026	6th	7/1	63%	29%	-0.35
14/09/2026	2nd	16/1	16%	86%	+0.70
28/09/2026	4th	10/1	47%	57%	+0.10
12/10/2026	5th	11/2	71%	20%	-0.51