4
Balboni's Crew
3yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 82
Woodbine · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Woodbine | Jose Campos | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-26 | Woodbine | Emma Jayne Wilson | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Woodbine | Eswan Flores | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Woodbine | Christoff Douglas | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Woodbine | Sahin Civaci | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Woodbine | Emma Jayne Wilson | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 26/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 09/10/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |